Traders See 99% Odds Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% on April 29

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its target range at 350 to 375 basis points at the April 29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The remaining 1% reflects a chance of a 25-basis-point hike; the tool indicates a negligible probability of a rate cut. That distribution has held for at least a week and contrasts with a roughly 6.2% chance of a hike one month earlier.

Prediction markets reflect the same outlook. Polymarket’s June 16–17 FOMC contract prices no change at 93%, a 25-basis-point cut at 4.5% and a hike at 1.6%, with more than $10.5 million in trading volume. The “50+ bps decrease” category on Polymarket has attracted over $2.8 million despite an implied probability below 1%.

Views for July show slightly more uncertainty but still favor a hold. Polymarket’s July 28–29 contract lists no change at 85%, a 25-basis-point cut at 10% and a hike at 3.4%; that contract has recorded $3.9 million in volume since March 19. Kalshi’s July contract places the hold probability at 84%, a 25-basis-point cut at 12% and a hike at 4%; volume on that contract is about $79,441.

Longer-term markets show limited easing priced into 2026. Polymarket’s market on how many Fed rate cuts occur in 2026 has taken in $20.9 million and prices zero cuts at about 40%, one cut at 28% and two cuts at 16%. Kalshi’s equivalent market reports zero cuts at 39.9%, one cut at 27.5% and two cuts at 15.8%, with total volume near $3.18 million. Both platforms count each 25-basis-point reduction as one cut and a 50-basis-point reduction as two; emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included. Kalshi’s annual market closes on Dec. 31, 2026, with payouts projected for Jan. 1, 2027.

Traders cite recent economic readings when setting expectations. The March 2026 consumer price index rose 3.3% year over year and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. Market participants will watch the April jobs report and updated inflation data for information that could shift probabilities. Until those data are released, contracts price a Fed hold at the April 29 meeting and most markets show no change through July.