Traders placed $430M Brent shorts before Trump’s ceasefire

Traders sold 4,260 lots of Brent crude futures between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on April 21, during post‑settlement hours when liquidity is thinner. At prevailing prices near $100.91 a barrel, the position had about $430 million in notional value.

At 20:10 GMT President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would extend the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, credited Pakistan’s mediation and described Iran’s government as “seriously fractured.” Brent crude fell to a session low of $96.83 a barrel within minutes and then partially recovered the following day.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been investigating earlier oil trades tied to announcements about the Iran conflict and has requested trading data from CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange. Regulators had not publicly filed charges as of April 22, and it was not clear whether the April 21 trades had been added to the existing probe. Intercontinental Exchange declined to comment on the April 21 activity.

Similar large, well‑timed short positions occurred earlier in April. On March 23 traders placed roughly $500 million in short bets about 15 minutes before an administration announcement pausing strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. On April 7 a position worth about $950 million was entered hours before an initial two‑week ceasefire was announced. On April 17 a $760 million short preceded an Iranian foreign minister’s comment about reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. April trades alone total roughly $2.1 billion in notional value.

Market participants have used the shorthand “TACO trade” to describe the pattern: aggressive rhetoric that pushes oil higher, followed by de‑escalation that leads to sharp sell‑offs in oil. Estimates of profits from earlier short trades range in the tens of millions of dollars. The White House has warned staff against using non‑public information to place trades, according to people familiar with the matter.

The ceasefire extension remained fragile. Iran had not formally agreed to the extension on U.S. terms and conditioned further negotiations on lifting a U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief and other concessions. Iranian forces seized commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz after the announcement, and peace talks in Pakistan stalled. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, so disruptions there affect energy prices quickly.

By 1 p.m. ET on April 22 Brent crude had climbed above $102 a barrel, after earlier trading on April 22 held prices roughly between $99 and $101 amid reports of vessel seizures. Regulators are continuing to seek trading records from exchanges to determine whether any of the large, well‑timed positions involved misuse of non‑public information.