Three crypto wallets net $484K on Polymarket hours ahead of U.S.–Iran ceasefire

Three newly created cryptocurrency wallets realized a combined $484,575 on Polymarket by wagering that the United States and Iran would agree to a ceasefire by April 7. The wagers were placed in the hours before a public announcement confirming a temporary ceasefire.

On-chain data show the wallets had no prior activity before they were funded and used to place bets on Polymarket’s “U.S. x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market. Polymarket records list the profits from the three accounts as $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450. The winning “yes” bets were entered at implied probabilities between 2.9% and 10.3%.

Timestamps on the trades indicate activity at 8:50 p.m. UTC on Monday, 10:01 a.m. UTC on Tuesday and 1:59 p.m. UTC on Tuesday. The 1:59 p.m. UTC trade occurred about eight and a half hours before President Donald Trump posted that a ceasefire agreement had been reached at 10:32 p.m. UTC. The contracts were paid out after U.S. and Iranian officials announced a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday; both sides said they had not ruled out further military action.

Prediction markets allow users to place bets on political and real-world events using cryptocurrency. Monthly trading volume across such platforms has exceeded $10 billion. Regulators and lawmakers have increased attention on these markets because on-chain records can show transaction timing while off-chain information sources remain private.

In January, U.S. legislators introduced a bill to restrict government officials from trading on prediction platforms after a trader profited more than $400,000 on a contract tied to a reported capture of a foreign leader. In February, authorities arrested and charged two people accused of using classified information to place bets on a prediction market about a potential strike; one of the individuals was identified as a member of a country’s military.

Polymarket has removed some markets in response to public criticism and has said it uses internal controls to identify suspicious activity. Other event markets have added oversight measures, including independent advisory committees and partnerships with trading surveillance firms to detect potential market abuse.

On-chain transparency makes it possible to see when and how wallets placed bets, but blockchain records do not reveal off-chain information sources. Lawmakers and regulators have cited the ease of setting up small accounts and placing large, well-timed wagers as a concern for monitoring and enforcement in crypto-based prediction markets.