TD Cowen Cuts MSTR Price Target as Bitcoin Weakens

TD Cowen lowered its price target for Strategy (MSTR) on Tuesday, cutting the target from $400 to $260, a 35% reduction. The bank also reduced its year‑end Bitcoin forecast to $100,000 from $140,000.

The analysts, led by Lance Vitanza, attributed the revision to Bitcoin’s ‘observed ongoing weakness’ in a note. Bitcoin traded near $58,400 on Tuesday, down more than 20% over the past month and about 53% from an all‑time high above $126,000 recorded last October.

Strategy shares fell 8.6% to $84.75 on Tuesday. Since the firm sold Bitcoin roughly a month ago — its first sale since 2022 — the stock has declined nearly 41% from $142.69. Over the past year the shares have lost more than 79%.

TD Cowen described Strategy’s Digital Credit Capital Framework as ‘a positive for credit visibility and capital flexibility.’ The company reported cash reserves of $2.55 billion and holdings of 847,363 Bitcoin.

The framework establishes a monetization program under which Strategy can sell up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to replenish cash, and authorizes repurchases of up to $1 billion of common shares and $1 billion of preferred shares.

Strategy raised the dividend rate on its flagship preferred, STRC, to 12% for the eighth time. STRC last traded at $83.11, below its $100 par value, after hitting a record low of $71.25 the prior week. Analysts wrote that linking STRC’s dividend adjustments to cash reserves and planned Bitcoin sales should modestly support price stability for the preferred equity.

Earlier this month the firm sold 32 Bitcoin for roughly $2.5 million, a transaction that prompted questions about further sales.

Last July TD Cowen had raised its price target on Strategy to $680 when the stock traded above $450.