Study: Americans wagered up to $34B on offshore markets
A Coalition for Prediction Markets study found Americans wagered as much as $34 billion on offshore prediction markets in the 12 months ending April 2026, about 12.5–31.5% of U.S. volume.
The study, commissioned by the industry group Coalition for Prediction Markets and conducted by Rutgers professor Harry Crane, estimated U.S. users placed $11 billion to $34 billion in wagers on offshore prediction markets over the 12 months ending April 2026. That range equals an estimated 12.5% to 31.5% share of total U.S. prediction market volume during the period. Using current industry growth estimates, the analysis projects U.S. activity on offshore markets could rise to about $133 billion in annual volume by 2030 if relative market shares remain constant.
Crane compared trading patterns on platforms that formally bar U.S. users and operate outside Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation with platforms limited to U.S. or non-U.S. users. The study examined major offshore exchanges, including Polymarket, and also analyzed activity on Opinion, Predict, Limitless and Myriad.
Polymarket was the largest offshore exchange in the analysis. Crane estimated roughly $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of Polymarket’s reported $55.6 billion trailing 12-month trading volume came from U.S. users. Polymarket was ordered offshore by the CFTC in 2022 and launched a regulated U.S. product last year. Public on-chain dashboards show about $5 billion in notional volume on the regulated U.S. site. The study did not separate regulated and offshore volumes because of data limitations. Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
The Coalition, whose members include regulated operators Kalshi, Crypto.com and Coinbase, posted that Americans use virtual private networks to access unregulated offshore platforms that list contracts tied to death and war. The group noted offshore platforms are not subject to the same customer verification, anti-money-laundering controls or market-integrity oversight that apply to regulated U.S. operators.
The CFTC is preparing proposed rules for prediction markets. One proposal would ban wagers that depend on the removal of political leaders when the possible path to that outcome could include war or assassination. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has asserted the agency’s jurisdiction over prediction markets, while some states have challenged that authority in court. Senator Elizabeth Warren has questioned whether the agency has sufficient resources to oversee the expanding market.
The study’s data have been cited in regulatory discussions about prediction markets and compliance on offshore platforms.
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