Standard Chartered: Strategy’s BTC sales ‘mostly noise’

Standard Chartered wrote that Strategy sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5 for about $216 million to cover dividends on its perpetual preferred shares and to add to a cash reserve. After the disposals, Strategy holds roughly 843,775 BTC.

The bank described the recent sales as “mostly noise rather than a signal” for Bitcoin’s medium-term direction and retained its end-2026 Bitcoin price target of $100,000.

An earlier, smaller sale of 32 BTC in early June had already prompted a sharp market reaction and contributed to pressure on the company’s preferred shares.

For years Strategy grew its Bitcoin holdings by issuing shares when its stock traded at a premium to the value of its treasury, measured by a metric called mNAV. That premium has largely disappeared. Standard Chartered estimates mNAV at about 1 on an enterprise-value basis, while equity-focused trackers show the stock trading near 0.7 times the value of its Bitcoin on a diluted basis.

Strategy acquired its Bitcoin position for about $63.7 billion. At current prices the holdings are worth roughly $54 billion, producing an $8.3 billion loss in the last quarter, most of which is unrealized.

The company backs a perpetual preferred known as STRC, which pays a 12% annual dividend and has about $10 billion outstanding. STRC fell to an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26 after the initial June sale.

Strategy’s board approved a Digital Credit Capital Framework and a related monetization program that allow sales of up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin to fund cash reserves, pay dividends or repurchase securities. The cash reserve set aside for the STRC dividend now holds about $2.55 billion, which the bank says covers nearly 18 months of payouts.

Bitcoin traded near $64,440, up about 3.8% for the week and down roughly 42% year-to-date. Strategy’s holdings represent more than 4% of the total Bitcoin supply. A prediction market assigns about a 13% probability that Strategy will hold more than 1 million BTC before 2027.

Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered wrote that clear communication from the company could reassure investors that large-scale selling is unlikely and help the preferred shares move back toward par, which would reduce pressure on Bitcoin prices.