Standard Chartered Delays $2T Stablecoin Forecast to 2030

Standard Chartered has pushed back its forecast for the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by two years, to 2030, after total market capitalization leveled off at about $309 billion in 2026.

Transaction activity continues to increase, indicating that existing stablecoins are circulating more frequently while new issuance grows more slowly.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, identified four stablecoin markets: savings in emerging markets, payments in developed markets, cryptocurrency trading and transactions between artificial intelligence agents.

Tether’s USDt leads savings activity in emerging markets, while Circle’s USDC leads payments in developed economies, according to the report. USDC and Ethena’s USDe have established positions in cryptocurrency trading. USDC also leads the smaller market for transactions between AI agents.

Competition is expected to be strongest in developed-market payments. Challengers include Global Dollar’s USDG, M^0 and stablecoin networks backed by multiple banks. These companies are developing alternatives to existing payment systems.

The division of income from stablecoin reserves between issuers and payment networks could affect market share, according to Kendrick. Reserves generally include assets such as government securities that generate income. The portion returned to users or shared with partners differs by business model.

The bank’s earlier forecast placed the potential $2 trillion market milestone in 2028. Standard Chartered revised that estimate after market capitalization reached about $309 billion and then stalled in 2026.

Regulatory and accounting changes in the United States could affect how companies use stablecoins. The GENIUS Act became law in 2025, and US regulators have proposed rules covering issuance, reserve requirements and consumer protections.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has proposed excluding stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance. The Treasury Department proposed rules in August that would restrict US stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorized issuers. The licensing requirements are expected to take effect in January 2027.

In August, the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed an accounting update that could change how some stablecoins are reported on corporate balance sheets. Blockchain payments company Tempo said the proposal could allow businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without adding accounting complications.