Standard Chartered warns Bitcoin may test $50K amid ETF outflows

Standard Chartered cut its year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecast for the second time in less than three months and warned the token could drop to $50,000 before recovering. The update came in a note on Thursday. Bitcoin was little changed in New York morning trading.

“We expect further price capitulation in the next few months,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research. He cited persistent outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and softer economic signals as the main pressures.

The bank highlighted that holdings in Bitcoin ETFs have declined since their Oct. 10 peak and estimated that investors have withdrawn nearly $8 billion from US-listed spot products since that selloff. The note also estimated the average buyer is now at a loss, with an entry price near $90,000.

Standard Chartered described the macro backdrop as less supportive for risk assets. “The macro risk backdrop is also becoming more challenging – the US economy may be softening, but markets expect no further rate cuts” until Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair later this year, the note stated. It added that a pause in policy easing could restrain fresh inflows into crypto funds in the coming months.

The bank also trimmed its outlook for Ether. The second-largest token traded below $2,000 on Thursday, and Kendrick expects it to drop toward $1,400 before rebounding later in the year.

Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from an October peak near $127,000, and the broader crypto market has shed almost $2 trillion in value over that period. In recent months Bitcoin has trailed major stock benchmarks such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Kendrick characterized the current downturn as sharp but more orderly than past crashes. “This selloff has been less extreme than previous ones and has not seen the collapse of any digital asset platforms,” he wrote.

As we reported earlier, Bernstein labeled the latest Bitcoin slide as its weakest bear case to date and maintained a roughly $150,000 target for 2026. The firm said the decline stemmed from a confidence shock and tighter liquidity rather than a structural break. Analyst Gautam Chhugani noted no major failures or hidden balance-sheet issues and pointed to expanding institutional participation through spot Bitcoin ETFs.