StanChart: Bitcoin cycle low $59,000; watching Saylor, ETFs, oil

Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital assets research at Standard Chartered, wrote to clients on Friday that he believes bitcoin has reached the cycle low at $59,000 and will seek confirmation from three indicators: fresh purchases by MicroStrategy, a one-day ETF inflow of $85.84 million and continued declines in crude oil prices.

The $59,000 level represents a 53% drop from a reported cycle high of $126,000. Market data showed bitcoin trading around $63,704 on Sunday.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted a dot chart on social media on Sunday with the caption “Still adding dots,” a message the company has used when it plans further bitcoin purchases. The post had more than half a million views by mid-afternoon Eastern Time. In early June the company reported a sale of 32 BTC; at a recent conference Saylor defended the transaction, saying the firm must retain the ability to sell to support bitcoin-backed credit and dividend products. He said, “If the company’s policy is that we won’t sell the Bitcoin, then the credit won’t have value and the equity won’t have value.”

Market-tracked data showed US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a one-day net inflow of $85.84 million on Friday. Five funds received inflows while eight showed no net change.

Crude oil futures fell for a second consecutive day on Friday. Kendrick connected softer oil prices to broader macro conditions that can influence risk appetite and demand for digital assets.

Kendrick concluded his client note with the line “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”

The approval of multiple US spot bitcoin ETFs has increased capital flows into bitcoin products. Corporate treasuries such as MicroStrategy’s have drawn attention because large purchases or sales can affect market sentiment. Energy prices and interest-rate expectations remain among macro factors investors watch for their potential impact on risk assets including cryptocurrencies.