Softer June CPI Fuels Rally in Bitcoin, Gold and Stocks

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June consumer prices increased 3.5% year over year, below the 3.8% consensus. The softer reading on Tuesday reversed a risk-off move from Monday and pushed bitcoin toward $64,000 while gold and equity futures gained. On Monday, President Trump announced a reinstated naval blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. Central Command stated the blockade would take effect Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two United Arab Emirates tankers in Omani waters, killing one crew member, and Jordan intercepted four missiles. Crude oil jumped: West Texas Intermediate settled around $79 a barrel and Brent topped $83, recording its largest one-day percentage gain in more than six years. Equities fell across the board on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.79% to 7,515.34, the Nasdaq Composite off 1.55% to 25,873.18 and the Dow dropping 138 points to 52,498.64. Chipmakers were among the weakest names; SK Hynix slid 9% after a recent Nasdaq debut and Micron fell about 4%. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year near 4.62% and the 2-year touching its highest level since early 2025. Gold fell roughly 1.4% to about $4,064 an ounce and bitcoin dipped to a Monday low near $61,700. Tuesday’s CPI print showed headline inflation eased from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, largely because gasoline prices fell about 10% month to month after a mid-June ceasefire briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz. S&P and Nasdaq futures rose in early trading, bitcoin recovered toward $64,000 intraday, silver gained about 2% and gold regained some ground. Federal Reserve developments remained in focus. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was scheduled to testify before Congress Tuesday and Wednesday as part of the semiannual monetary policy report, his first appearance on Capitol Hill since becoming chair. Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that a hot core inflation reading would prompt consideration of rate increases. The Fed’s target range has been 3.5% to 3.75% since June; the next policy decision is set for July 29. Market participants will watch the producer price index due Wednesday, retail sales data on Thursday, and a slate of second-quarter bank earnings this week from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Since February, Iran has largely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that typically handles about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade; further disruptions could push oil and headline inflation higher. Core inflation excluding food and energy remained near 2.8% to 2.9%. Bitcoin and equities moved closely together this week, and gold’s Monday decline occurred alongside a firmer dollar and higher real yields.