Rep. Steil proposes ban on policy bets, exempts White House

Rep. Bryan Steil, who chairs the House subcommittee on digital assets, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act to bar members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from placing bets tied to specific government policies, actions or political outcomes on prediction-market platforms. The measure does not extend to White House officials.

The bill would prohibit lawmakers and their immediate families from using policy-aligned event contracts on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. It would leave intact the ability to place non-policy wagers, including on sporting events. Violators would face a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited wagers. If signed by the president, the law would take effect 180 days after enactment.

Supporters of the bill cite concerns that elected officials might use privileged information about pending legislation, regulatory actions or other official developments to profit on event contracts. Those concerns intensified after an incident in which a service member was alleged to have earned more than $400,000 by betting on the removal of Venezuela’s president, who was ousted by US forces in January.

Steil’s legislation specifically excludes White House officials, leaving the president and vice president outside the bill’s prohibitions. The text does not name the White House directly. Donald Trump Jr. is listed as a strategic adviser to Kalshi and an adviser to Polymarket; Polymarket recently sponsored a UFC event at the White House.

Federal regulators are disputing how to classify and oversee prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asserted exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act and has filed lawsuits against state authorities that tried to restrict or ban event contracts. The CFTC treats many event contracts as swaps rather than traditional bets, a legal position now facing litigation that could reach higher courts.

Steil’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The bill adds to other proposals in Congress aimed at addressing the potential for insider trading on prediction-market platforms.