Rep. Steil bill would bar lawmakers from prediction-market wagers

Rep. Bryan Steil, chair of the House Administration Committee, introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act on Thursday. The bill would bar members of Congress, their spouses and dependent children from placing wagers on prediction markets tied to legislation, government actions or election results.

Steil’s office noted the proposal is meant to prevent officials from profiting on information they might access before the public. The measure targets trading on platforms that allow contracts tied to political and regulatory outcomes.

Violators would owe a penalty of $2,000 or 10% of the wager’s value, whichever is greater, plus any profit realized from the bet. The bill would bar use of official office funds, taxpayer-funded allowances and campaign donations to pay fines.

The text permits referral to the Justice Department for civil enforcement if penalties remain unpaid after an officeholder leaves Congress. It extends the prohibition to spouses and dependent children.

In a statement Steil wrote, “The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information.” He added, “Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”

The proposal follows bipartisan concern over platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The Senate passed a resolution in April barring its members and staff from using prediction markets. The House Oversight Committee opened investigations in May into suspected insider trading on the platforms.

Steil’s office noted the bill builds on a Stop Insider Trading Act advanced by the committee in January. Steil had planned to include similar restrictions in a broader bill to ban congressional stock trading; that stock-trading measure cleared committee in February but has not reached a House floor vote.

Federal prosecutors increased scrutiny after the April arrest of Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Prosecutors allege he used classified information to place winning wagers on Polymarket related to the January removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, earning more than $400,000. He pleaded not guilty and a trial is tentatively set for Dec. 7.

The bill will undergo committee review in the House Administration Committee. Congressional debate and committee work will determine whether it advances to a House floor vote.