Prediction markets see Hassett as the leading candidate for Fed chair
Kevin Hassett has become the clear favorite in forecasts for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. According to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, his odds have risen to 66% and 74%, respectively.
Hassett is the former head of the National Economic Council under Donald Trump and is known for his close ties to the crypto sector, including his role on Coinbase Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council.
The rise in his odds comes amid internal debate at the Fed over changes to supervisory policy. Against that backdrop, Hassett is viewed as a potential inflection point for the crypto market, which has faced strict regulatory pressure in recent years.
Hassett has long experience in Republican economic policymaking and is seen as a crypto-friendly candidate. His disclosures include a seven-figure stake in Coinbase and compensation for his work with the exchange’s advisory council. He also headed the White House working group on digital assets, further strengthening his reputation within the industry.
Expectations may be overly optimistic. Gary Gensler’s tenure at the SEC shows that even candidates familiar with the technology can enforce a strict regulatory agenda. The Fed’s mandate to safeguard financial stability will remain the priority, and Hassett would not be able to overhaul supervision in favor of crypto assets.
His rising odds also reflect tension within the regulator itself. New supervisory principles released on November 18 shift examiners’ focus toward assessing actual risks rather than procedural violations. Critics warn that this “narrowing” could weaken the Fed’s ability to respond to emerging threats and repeat mistakes that preceded past crises.
Despite the disagreements, internal Fed documents indicate that changes are already underway: the regulator clarified that the new principles do not apply to the consumer protection division. This underscores the increasingly complex environment a new chair would be stepping into.
If prediction markets are correct, Hassett would take over during a shift in supervisory policy and at a time of mounting pressure from the crypto industry. For the sector, his appointment would be one of the key signals of 2026.
The material on GNcrypto is intended solely for informational use and must not be regarded as financial advice. We make every effort to keep the content accurate and current, but we cannot warrant its precision, completeness, or reliability. GNcrypto does not take responsibility for any mistakes, omissions, or financial losses resulting from reliance on this information. Any actions you take based on this content are done at your own risk. Always conduct independent research and seek guidance from a qualified specialist. For further details, please review our Terms, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers.
Articles by this author
