MetaMask sees surge in event markets beyond crypto

MetaMask’s guide described 2026 as a year when platforms handling event contracts have scaled to “billions” in trading volume, with sports and politics leading both transaction count and open interest. The guide framed the category mix as a practical map of what traders are actually doing: placing contracts on electoral outcomes and headline sports events at the top, then rotating into macro-sensitive markets tied to crypto prices, interest rates, commodities, and company valuations.

In politics, MetaMask highlighted high-volume markets around US leadership and policy risk, including “Who will be the next US President?” and 2028 party nominee contracts, alongside “Will there be a US government shutdown?” and markets tied to high-profile appointments such as “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” It also pointed to international election contracts spanning countries including Chile, Romania, Poland and South Korea, reflecting how political trading has broadened beyond US cycles.

Sports has expanded into a similarly large pillar, with MetaMask pointing to “Who will win the Super Bowl?” and a wider menu of season-long and tournament outcomes. The guide specifically called out Winter Olympics 2026 markets tied to the Milano Cortina games – ranging from match outcomes to national medal counts – as well as contracts on NBA, MLB and NHL champions, international football tournaments, and MVP-style player awards.

Alongside those headline categories, MetaMask singled out “crypto, economic, and financial markets” as a major engine of activity, describing a globally diverse user base trading contracts linked to digital assets and macro indicators. Example markets in the guide include Bitcoin and Ethereum “price brackets” over short windows – such as “What price will Bitcoin hit in March?” with targets like $60,000, $80,000 and $100,000 – plus contracts around “Will the Fed change interest rates?” tied to FOMC meetings and inflation releases. MetaMask also referenced commodities contracts such as “Will gold hit $6K by June?” and an equities-style forecast for “World’s largest company by market cap at the end of June,” naming large-cap contenders including NVIDIA, Apple and Google.

The guide said the market mix now extends beyond finance into tech, science and culture. In tech and science, MetaMask highlighted markets asking which company will have the best AI model in a given month – naming Anthropic, Google and OpenAI – along with longer-dated forecasts such as whether there will be a fusion-energy breakthrough in 2026, and contracts around major product launches or tech regulation. In pop culture, MetaMask pointed to Oscars and Grammys winner markets and other entertainment outcomes, while its “miscellaneous & niche” section included contracts such as “Will aliens land on earth before 2027?” and “mention markets” tied to broadcast phrases – for example, whether Taylor Swift is mentioned during a Super Bowl halftime show.

MetaMask’s “trends in 2026” section described the mechanics behind that expansion. It said prices now react in real time as news breaks, presenting fast-moving signals compared with traditional polling, while thousands of markets run at once across “tentpole” events and rapidly emerging topics. It also argued that participation is split between everyday users and more sophisticated traders who are looking for hedges or an information edge, suggesting the product is no longer only a speculative novelty.

Market data on leading platforms shows how concentrated activity can become inside the biggest categories. On Polymarket’s politics page, the platform lists 1,456 active politics markets and says those markets have generated more than $2.5 billion in trading volume. Polymarket’s homepage also shows event menus spanning elections, macro, sports, entertainment and “crypto prices,” underscoring how the same interface now mixes traditionally separate domains.

At the same time, the legal and regulatory environment remains a defining “where” and “how” constraint for the sector in 2026. In the US, Kalshi’s sports-linked event contracts have become a focal point in state-level challenges, including a lawsuit filed by Nevada seeking to block the platform’s prediction betting operations in the state. The dispute is part of a wider clash over whether these contracts should be treated as regulated derivatives under federal oversight or as sports betting subject to state rules, with litigation spreading across multiple jurisdictions.

MetaMask’s guide ultimately presents prediction markets as a single ecosystem with two dominant attention magnets – politics and sports – while the “crypto/economic/financial” segment provides a second layer that ties the products directly to rate expectations, inflation prints, commodity thresholds and crypto price levels. The categories it lists – from US election nominees and government shutdown odds to Super Bowl winners, Olympics medal counts, BTC/ETH brackets, Fed decisions, gold milestones, AI leaderboard debates, fusion forecasts, awards season and “mention markets” – illustrate how 2026 trading has become a rapid-response venue for turning headlines into prices.