Prediction markets put 76% odds BTC hits $50K before $100K

Kalshi’s market for whether bitcoin will hit $50,000 before $100,000 shows a 76% probability, up 35 percentage points in recent weeks. The contract has recorded $54,516 in trading volume, settles using the CF Real-Time Index with a 60-second average, and resolves to ‘No’ if neither threshold is crossed by Dec. 31, 2026.

Polymarket’s largest active bitcoin market, which tracks prices from Nov. 24, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2026 using Binance one-minute BTC/USDT candles, has drawn about $45 million in volume. That market prices a 78% probability of $55,000 or lower, a 64% probability of $50,000 or lower, a 10% probability of reaching $100,000 and a roughly 1%–2% probability of reaching $160,000 or higher during the tracking window.

Polymarket’s June 2026 price-range market has $30.3 million in volume and assigns a 33% probability that bitcoin will fall to or below $57,500 before June 30 and a 29% probability it will reach $62,500 or higher that month. The same market prices a 7% chance of $55,000 and about 1% or less for $67,500 or above.

Kalshi’s timeline market on when bitcoin will next cross $100,000 has $10.3 million in volume and shows probabilities below 1% for a move above $100,000 before July 2026, about 6% before October 2026, and 14% before January 2027. Polymarket’s separate market on when bitcoin will hit $150,000, with roughly $26.9 million in volume, prices under 1% for that milestone by June 30 and about 5% by Dec. 31, 2026.

Kalshi’s ‘How low will BTC get in June?’ market, which has logged $1.7 million in volume, places a 32% probability that bitcoin’s trimmed mean price will fall below $57,500 before June 30, a 7% probability of falling below $55,000, and a 2% probability of dropping below $52,500.

Together, contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket account for more than $75 million in combined trading volume. Each contract settles according to its index rules: Polymarket’s annual market uses Binance one-minute candle data on the BTC/USDT pair, while Kalshi uses the CF Real-Time Index 60-second average to determine which threshold is crossed first.

At the time these markets were measured, bitcoin was trading near $59,500, roughly 31.5% below the high observed during the period tracked by Polymarket’s largest contract.