Polymarket faces scrutiny after anonymous Maduro trade, Iran bets

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, is under scrutiny after an anonymous wallet earned sizable gains from a bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal hours before a reported U.S. operation that reportedly captured him. The sequence of wagers has been referred to as the “Maduro trade.”

Blockchain records reviewed by analytics firms linked three wallets to the winning positions. Two went inactive for 11 days after the trades. A third resumed activity and, two days ago, bet that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would leave power by January 31. That market remains open on Polymarket.

President Donald Trump later stated that a Venezuelan whistleblower connected to the operation had been arrested.

Separate activity in a market on a possible U.S. strike on Iran drew attention. A large wallet purchased contracts predicting an attack by January 14. During protests in Iran and a temporary closure of its airspace, prices and volumes on Polymarket rose. The deadline passed without an attack, and the market resolved to “No.”

Analysts describe the recent trading as potential “information laundering,” where large wagers shift odds in sensitive markets. Those odds can be picked up by trading bots and shared on platforms such as X and Telegram, creating the impression of real-time signals before official confirmation.

In Washington, Rep. Ritchie Torres introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. The proposal would bar U.S. officials from trading in markets tied to government actions when they possess nonpublic information. The bill has dozens of House cosponsors, has not received a vote, and does not have a Senate companion, according to congressional records.

Polymarket allows users to buy and sell shares in outcomes of future events, with prices moving as traders place bets. Large positions can quickly move odds, which many users treat as implied probabilities.

Regulatory specialists and market analysts note that no conclusive evidence links the Iran-related bets to U.S. insiders. The timing and size of positions, and later reversals, have raised questions about how decentralized platforms may affect perception of geopolitical events.

Analysts continue to monitor the “Maduro trade” and the Iran markets by tracking wallet behavior and comparing price moves with public developments. The observed 11-day pause by two linked wallets, and fresh geopolitical bets from a third, remain under review.