Polymarket odds rise for United Kingdom prime minister Keir Starmer exit in 2026
Traders on crypto prediction platform Polymarket priced an increased chance this week that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer could leave office in 2026, as political pressure built around the Peter Mandelson and Jeffrey Epstein controversy.
As of 6 February 2026, more than $2 million had been traded on Polymarket contracts tied to whether Starmer exits by specific 2026 deadlines. The market implied about a 41% chance he is out by 30 June 2026 and about a 65% chance he is out by 31 December 2026, based on contract pricing.
The repricing followed fresh reporting on Mandelson, a former Labour heavyweight who served as Britain’s ambassador to the United States. On 5 February 2026, Starmer apologized to Epstein’s victims and said he had been misled about the depth of Mandelson’s relationship with the late financier, according to Al Jazeera. Mandelson was fired in September 2025 after emails showed he maintained a friendship with Epstein after Epstein’s 2008 conviction for sex offenses involving a minor, according to an Associated Press report.
The U.K. government agreed this week to release records related to Mandelson’s appointment as anger mounted over new documents published in the United States. The Guardian reported on 4 February 2026 that Starmer ordered publication of emails, documents and messages tied to the decision, with carve-outs for material deemed prejudicial to national security or diplomatic relations and for items that could affect a police investigation. The Associated Press reported that lawmakers pushed for the Intelligence and Security Committee to decide what is published, and that London’s Metropolitan Police have opened a misconduct in public office investigation into allegations Mandelson shared sensitive information with Epstein.
Polymarket markets resolve based on publicly verifiable outcomes, and prices can move quickly with liquidity and headline flow.
As GNcrypto wrote on 2 February 2026, Polymarket traders priced about a 72% chance that bitcoin would trade at $65,000 or lower at some point in 2026 after the weekend selloff. Bitcoin later fell below $65,000 on 5 February 2026 during the broader market rout, putting that downside threshold in play.
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