Polymarket Bet Before Ricketts Poll Draws Scrutiny

Vanderbilt University researchers identified a Polymarket trade placed on Oct. 31, when a user bet nearly $200,000 that Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts would be reelected. About an hour later, a poll showed Ricketts leading. The bet returned more than $77,000.

The trade was part of a series of large wagers that researchers said should be investigated. The same user placed large bets in other prediction-market contracts, including markets on Kalshi.

The timing raised questions about whether the bettor had access to information that was not publicly available when the wagers were placed. The researchers did not establish that the user had confidential information.

“There’s a series of circumstances here that it’s hard to write it off as a random occurrence,” said Brett Goldstein of the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He added that the activity “requires further investigation.”

Polymarket said it had identified the trades and was investigating them. Kalshi declined to comment.

The wagers come amid scrutiny of prediction-market trading based on potentially confidential information. In April, a U.S. Army soldier was charged with allegedly earning more than $400,000 through Polymarket bets tied to nonpublic information about a U.S. operation involving Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The Justice Department alleged that Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke helped plan and carry out Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to Maduro’s capture at a residence in Caracas in January. Prosecutors alleged that Van Dyke used information connected to the operation to buy “yes” shares in contracts including “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.”

Reviewed and fact-checked by Alex Panasenko on November 7.