Polymarket puts 87% odds on December Fed cut

Polymarket on Friday put the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December at 87%, the highest level this month. The pricing coincided with gains across U.S. crypto-linked stocks, led by Bitcoin miners Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining. Circle climbed nearly 10% in early trading.

Strategy and Coinbase posted smaller advances. The three miners have recorded double-digit gains over the past five sessions.

Bitcoin rose about 7% over the past week after a decline earlier in November, based on market prices.

Odds on Polymarket have swung this month alongside signals from Fed officials. On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called a December cut “not a foregone conclusion.” After that, the implied probability dropped from 89% the day before to as low as 22% by late November. The gauge rebounded after Nov. 17, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank should consider cutting rates next month, describing the labor market as “still weak and near stall speed” and inflation as “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% goal.

Prediction markets have drawn increased activity in 2024. In November, Polymarket platform reached a multi-year agreement with TKO Group Holdings to become the official prediction-market partner for the Ultimate Fighting Championship and Zuffa Boxing, and announced a separate partnership with PrizePicks. Rival platform Kalshi raised $1 billion from investors including Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, bringing its valuation to $11 billion, after a $300 million round in October.

Trading in crypto equities was volatile through the week ahead of the Fed’s December policy meeting.

As we reported earlier, TKO Group Holdings on Nov. 13 announced multi-year deal naming Polymarket Official and Exclusive Prediction Market Partner of UFC and Zuffa Boxing. The partnership will embed live prediction market features in broadcasts and events, including a Fan Prediction Scoreboard and a social series, Matchup Predictions – Who’s Next?, on UFC accounts linking to related markets. Polymarket will be the first official brand partner of Zuffa Boxing, slated to debut in January 2026, with in-arena activations. Starting in 2026, all UFC and Zuffa Boxing events will stream in the U.S. exclusively on Paramount+; terms were not disclosed.