Polymarket: 33% Chance STRC Hits $100 by Year-End
Polymarket traders assign up to 33% odds that Strategy’s preferred stock STRC will hit $100 by Dec. 31, while Arkham calls STRC a ‘junk bond’ after it fell below $75.
Polymarket traders are betting that Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock STRC will return to its $100 par value even as the security trades below $75. The wagers come amid public criticism of STRC’s risk profile and concern about Strategy’s bitcoin-heavy balance sheet.
Polymarket markets show $23,722 in total trading volume across three contracts. The Sept. 30 market has $15,004 in volume and an implied probability of 28%. The June 30 contract has $6,340 in volume and an implied chance below 1%. The Dec. 31 contract carries the highest implied probability at 33% but has drawn $2,378 so far.
Under Polymarket’s rules, a market resolves to “Yes” if any one-minute TradingView candle records a final high of at least $100 before the deadline. If no such candle occurs, the market settles as “No.” The platform’s pricing reflects traders assigning modest odds to STRC reaching par within the listed time frames.
Arkham Intelligence described STRC as “not a stablecoin” and wrote that it is “currently trading like a company junk bond.” Arkham noted STRC ranks among Strategy’s most junior obligations and that the company is not legally required to guarantee yield or redeem the shares on a set date. The firm calculated that a $75 market price implies an effective yield of about 15.3% for new buyers.
Economist and portfolio manager Cullen Roche wrote that STRC is “a fixed-income-styled instrument whose repayment capacity is collateralized by a non-cash-flowing asset,” adding that “confidence is the first thing to go in a drawdown.” Roche framed the preferred as dependent on market confidence rather than recurring cash flow.
A Strategy backer using the name Zaid wrote that the company’s balance sheet can handle volatility and expressed faith in founder Michael Saylor and the management team, writing, “I truly believe this management team is capable of working through this.”
Market observers note that any recovery in STRC’s price would likely track changes in bitcoin’s market value and shifts in investor confidence. The current Polymarket prices show traders assigning some probability to a rebound but placing higher odds on recovery by later deadlines rather than immediately.
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