Polymarket traders place 21% odds on $150K Bitcoin in 2026

Polymarket traders are assigning a 21% probability that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 before the end of 2026, based on pricing in the platform’s market tracking the highest BTC price this year.

Polymarket is a prediction platform where users trade outcome contracts with real money. Contract prices imply probabilities that update in real time as new information, trading flows and policy signals emerge.

Contracts tied to other thresholds show about an 80% chance for $100,000 and roughly 28% for $140,000. These figures update continuously as trading occurs and reflect the market’s current view of potential highs for Bitcoin in 2026.

The readings come after Bitcoin ended 2025 lower, following years in which many market participants used a four-year halving cycle to frame past rallies.

Policy expectations are drawing attention. A new U.S. Federal Reserve chair is anticipated in the coming weeks, and investors broadly expect rate cuts. Gold and silver set record highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, while major crypto assets were largely flat over the same period.

In Washington, two proposed crypto bills — the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act — aim to provide more defined rules for the sector. If enacted, clearer standards could make it easier for institutions to participate.

Forecasts for 2026 vary across Wall Street. Research teams at Standard Chartered and Bernstein list $150,000 as a base-case target for Bitcoin this year, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has outlined scenarios in the $200,000 to $250,000 range.

As we covered previously, Clear Street’s Owen Lau said the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 will be key to whether retail investors return to crypto, noting that lower rates tend to support digital assets by making bonds and deposits less attractive.