Delphi Digital sees on-chain perpetuals eating into traditional derivatives volumes

The market share shift is already visible. Perp DEX revenue share climbed from 2.1% in January 2023 to a record 11.7% by November 2025, according to CoinGecko data cited by Cointelegraph. That rise has come alongside a surge in trading activity: cumulative perp DEX volume roughly tripled during 2025 to $12.09 trillion, with about $7.9 trillion generated last year alone, DefiLlama figures show.

Context matters for scale. Even after the on-chain boom, perp DEX activity remains a rounding error next to the off-chain universe: the Bank for International Settlements estimated notional outstanding OTC derivatives at $846 trillion as of June 2025, underscoring the headroom for further absorption if crypto rails continue to close the gap on latency, liquidity and compliance.

Investor attention has coalesced around the leading DEX token Hyperliquid (HYPE) as the on-chain derivatives theme expands. A December note from Cantor Fitzgerald sketched a 10-year path that could take HYPE above $200 under assumptions of a 15% compound annual growth rate and sizable repurchases via an Assistance Fund that would shrink supply to 666 million tokens. While projections are inherently uncertain, the thesis ties token value to broader on-chain derivatives penetration.

The core claim is less about near-term price targets and more about architecture. Traditional derivatives markets are described as slow and fragmented, with multiple fee-taking intermediaries and reconciliations across clearing layers. Perp DEXs, by contrast, can route margin, matching, risk and settlement through a unified, transparent ledger with programmable risk engines and native collateral mobility – an approach that, if sustained, could compress costs and expand product scope for retail and professional traders alike.

Still, the report’s framing acknowledges unfinished work. On-chain venues must keep advancing throughput and risk controls while proving resilience across volatility spikes and liquidity droughts. The list of priorities includes deeper per-pair liquidity, improved liquidation mechanics, robust oracle design, and institutional-grade compliance integrations – all areas where new entrants like Aster, Lighter and Paradex are pushing to catch incumbents.

For now, the directional takeaway is clear: with volumes compounding and feature sets converging on full-service brokerage stacks, perpetual DEXs start 2026 with momentum and a widening scope, even as the total addressable market – the vast OTC derivatives complex – remains orders of magnitude larger. The coming year will test whether on-chain platforms can convert engineering gains into durable share wins against legacy infrastructure.