PancakeSwap incubates zero-fee prediction market Probable on BNB Chain
PancakeSwap is co-incubating an independent, on-chain prediction market, Probable, on BNB Chain that combines crypto, sports, and global event forecasts in a single platform.
PancakeSwap announced the incubation of Probable, a no-fee, fully on-chain prediction market set to launch soon on BNB Chain. The platform will feature zero prediction fees at launch and aims to let users forecast outcomes across crypto prices, global events, sports and regional markets.
Probable is being developed with support from PancakeSwap and YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) and is positioned as an independent project. It will run entirely on-chain and rely on BNB Chain’s low-cost, high-speed infrastructure.
The platform plans to offer prediction markets beyond crypto, including global news events, sports outcomes and region-specific contests that are uncommon on similar services. The team is focusing on fast settlement, clear outcomes and a simplified interface.
Event verification and market resolution will use UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, a dispute-driven system that provides outcome data with economic guarantees. The approach is intended to deliver tamper-resistant, transparent settlement across categories such as crypto, politics and sports.
Probable’s onboarding will accept deposits in any token, which will be automatically converted to USDT on BNB Chain to serve as the base asset for predictions. This is meant to remove the need for separate swaps or bridges before participating in markets.
PancakeSwap intends to guide Probable’s rollout to help scale the product on BNB Chain while noting that the project operates independently. At launch, the platform is expected to provide full on-chain transparency and a pipeline of niche regional markets.
The move comes as prediction markets gain wider traction across the crypto industry. A 2025 Myriad Markets survey found that about 80% of respondents ranked the sector as the one with the strongest growth potential. As we covered previously, Gemini has secured a CFTC Designated Contract Market license to offer event contracts to U.S. users. It plans to launch a dedicated prediction market with web and mobile access, where traders can buy simple “yes” or “no” contracts on major crypto milestones, macro events and regulatory outcomes, with fixed payouts and transparent settlement.
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