O’Leary: Bitcoin Could Reach $1M If Quantum Risk Clears

Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Leary Ventures, said during a podcast at the Avalanche Summit in New York that Bitcoin could reach $1 million if concerns about quantum computers breaking the network’s encryption are resolved. Bitcoin traded near $81,177 on Sept. 19; reaching $1 million would require a more than twelvefold rise.

The technical risk is known as Q-Day, the moment a quantum computer can defeat public-key cryptography that underpins addresses and signatures. No such machine exists today, but researchers have revised estimates for the hardware needed and shortened some timelines.

One major research team has suggested that fewer than 500,000 physical qubits might suffice to break the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin, down from earlier estimates in the millions. National standards bodies aim to phase out vulnerable encryption by 2030 and ban it by 2035; a research group has proposed migration plans as early as 2029.

On-chain analysis shows about 6.04 million BTC, roughly 30.2% of the issued supply, sits in addresses whose public keys are already visible. Coins in those addresses would be the clearest targets if key-breaking becomes practical, because addresses that never revealed public keys remain harder to attack.

The prospect of Q-Day is affecting institutional decisions. O’Leary has noted many institutions cap Bitcoin exposure at low single-digit percentages and earlier this year referenced a 3% allocation cap. A strategist at an investment firm removed a 10% Bitcoin position from a model portfolio over the same concern.

On the podcast, O’Leary warned, “It will if it can resolve the doubt creeping in around quantum computing, you know, breaking the algorithms and the chain and the encryption.”

Researchers, standards bodies and protocol developers are discussing migration strategies and software upgrades intended to protect assets before a quantum computer capable of breaking current cryptography appears.