Oil slips in thin holiday trade as traders watch Iran-US talks

Oil prices edged lower in thin holiday trading, with Brent easing to about $68 a barrel and U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate holding a little above $63. With U.S. markets shut for Presidents’ Day and several Asian markets closed for Lunar New Year holidays, price action looked more like positioning than a fresh verdict on supply and demand.

The near-term catalyst is politics. Traders are watching renewed U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, where any signal of de-escalation could reduce the geopolitical risk premium. At the same time, the market has to price the opposite tail risk. Iran has recently held naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global crude flows, and headlines around the region can still move prices quickly.

The supply picture is already complicated without the diplomacy. OPEC+ has been weighing a return to output increases later in the spring, while banks and consultants keep debating whether 2026 brings a soft glut or another round of disruption. GNcrypto previously pointed to supply-increase expectations as a recurring pressure point for crude, even when geopolitics is noisy.

One reason prices have not cracked lower is that the market keeps finding buyers near the same levels. In late 2025, Vår Energi’s CEO described a practical floor near $60 per barrel as companies cut spending when crude weakens. That dynamic does not stop volatility, but it helps explain why dips often attract hedging flows.

For now, the takeaway is less about today’s tick and more about sensitivity. With liquidity thin and a single headline able to swing sentiment, oil is trading like a risk asset tied to diplomacy. If talks calm the market, the risk premium can leak out fast. If they don’t, prices can rebound just as quickly.