Murphy alleges White House insider bets, seeks prediction market ban

Sen. Chris Murphy alleged that people with White House access placed six-figure wagers on Polymarket hours before the United States struck Iran and indicated he will introduce a bill to bar certain betting markets. The claim followed an analysis by Bubblemaps that identified six new wallets that earned about $1.2 million on contracts tied to a U.S. strike.

Murphy pointed to on-chain records showing newly funded accounts buying “Yes” shares in a market asking whether the United States would strike Iran by February 28, 2026. Bubblemaps reported that most of the wallets were funded within 24 hours of the attack and opened positions just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.

One flagged account bought more than 560,000 shares at about 10.8 cents each, which later paid close to $560,000 when the contract resolved at $1. According to Bubblemaps, the six wallets had no prior trading history and together netted roughly $1.2 million.

In a video posted to X, Murphy called the activity “a new kind of corruption” and urged a ban on what he labeled “destabilizing prediction markets.” He added, “It looks like those six big accounts that were set up on Friday made a profit of a million dollars off of us going to war on Saturday.”

Murphy warned that letting people bet on military actions could skew national security decisions, suggesting that those in the Situation Room might be motivated by personal profit rather than policy. He also pointed to rising consumer prices, saying it is especially troubling if White House insiders are making large sums while costs climb during the conflict.

Trading in geopolitics markets on Polymarket reached about $425.4 million in the week ending March 1, up from $163.9 million the prior week, based on user-compiled analytics. The platform allows users to buy and sell shares tied to real-world events using stablecoins.

This week, Polymarket archived a contract asking whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year after public backlash. Before it was removed, the market recorded more than $838,000 in trading volume across contracts with deadlines including March 31, June 30, and dates extending before 2027.

Concerns over insider trading on geopolitical markets have surfaced in other countries. In February, Israeli authorities charged an Israel Defense Forces reservist and a civilian with using classified military intelligence to place Polymarket bets ahead of Israel’s operations against Iran.

Murphy has been preparing legislation aimed at banning prediction markets tied to sensitive government actions. He has argued that products of this type can be “rigged” by people with nonpublic information and that prohibiting them would reduce the risk of profiteering connected to national security matters.

Previously, Polymarket defended its war-related markets as harnessing the “wisdom of the crowd” during “gut-wrenching times,” while traders placed time-specific bets on military action, including when the US would strike Iran.