MSTR stock gains on Tom Lee’s $100K Bitcoin forecast

Strategy stock rose Friday after Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee reiterated a year-end Bitcoin target of $100,000, pointing to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising institutional demand.

Shares of the enterprise software company, which holds a large Bitcoin reserve on its balance sheet, advanced following the forecast. Lee’s outlook ties potential gains to easier monetary policy and broader participation by asset managers. His longer-term view includes a possible revisit of record levels in 2026 and a path to $200,000.

Strategy’s equity tends to move with Bitcoin because the firm continues to acquire the token and uses it as its primary treasury reserve asset. A higher Bitcoin price increases the value of those holdings and can lift the company’s market capitalization.

Technical signals pointed to oversold conditions in recent sessions. The relative strength index fell to about 23, the lowest reading this year. The Stochastic indicator also dropped to yearly lows, and the True Strength Index turned negative. Some chart watchers cite $230 as an initial upside hurdle, a level that aligns with lows from February through April.

Bitcoin remains below its prior peak. Lee links the next advance to an improving macro backdrop and continued inflows from institutions in the United States and abroad. Prospects for rate cuts by the Fed feature in that view and could ease financial conditions for risk assets, including crypto.

Strategy has accumulated Bitcoin across multiple market cycles and has communicated an intent to continue. A rally toward $100,000 would lift the value of its digital asset holdings and could improve sentiment toward crypto-linked equities.

As we covered previously, Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) faced questions about possible removal from major equity indexes after Bitcoin fell below $85,000, raising the risk of index-driven outflows. JPMorgan estimated about $2.8 billion of automatic selling if MSCI drops the stock, and up to $8.8 billion if other providers follow; roughly $9 billion of its ~$59 billion market value is held by index trackers. Michael Saylor defended the approach, noting a $42.33 million software business and more than $25 billion in Bitcoin-backed notes sold ($STRK, $STRF, $STRD, $STRC, $STRE), while MSCI reviews classification.