Michael Terpin Predicts Bitcoin Could Fall to $43,500

In a recent interview, veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin warned that Bitcoin could decline about 66% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100 to roughly $43,500. He said markets have not yet reached a true bottom and that further losses are possible.

A 66% drop from the $126,100 peak would place Bitcoin near $43,500, a price last seen in early February 2024. He described a genuine market bottom as one that does not rebound quickly: “We still have more pain to go.” He added, “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back.”

Terpin expects Bitcoin to keep following the traditional four-year halving cycle. He disputed the notion that institutional holders will prevent downturns simply by holding positions, arguing that institutions do sell and that macroeconomic forces have constrained recent rallies.

Reflecting on the 2021 cycle peak, he noted many traders missed an exit above $60,000 while expecting a run to $100,000. “You had quite a bit of time to get out over $60,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” he recalled.

He said macroeconomic conditions have been a drag across multiple cycles and that expectations for improved conditions after the 2024 U.S. election were tempered by tariffs and other policy decisions. Bitcoin later reached $100,000 in December 2024, one month after the election result.

Terpin cautioned investors about companies built around Bitcoin exposure, citing MicroStrategy and its executive chairman’s aggressive accumulation strategy. He acknowledged that corporate strategies have at times outperformed buying the asset directly, but he prefers owning Bitcoin to backing a single firm.

For mainstream investors, he recommended a low-maintenance approach: follow the four-year cycle, review allocations near expected bottoms and tops, and otherwise remain largely hands-off. “You only have to look at your portfolio like a couple times during the four-year cycle,” he said, adding that altcoin investing requires more active management.

Terpin is founder and CEO of Transform Ventures and was an early backer of projects that later became major industry names. He moved to Puerto Rico for tax reasons and has invested in startups on the island. Bitcoin rose about 1.7% over the past 30 days. Market participants continue to debate whether institutional adoption and spot ETFs have altered the historic boom-and-bust pattern tied to halving cycles.