Markets Put 77% Odds on GPT-6 Public Release by Sept. 30

Traders on Polymarket and Myriad assign about a 77% probability that OpenAI will publicly release GPT-6 by Sept. 30. OpenAI has not announced the model or a launch date.

On Polymarket, the GPT-6 market has recorded about $731,000 in trading volume, an increase of roughly $32,000 from an earlier snapshot. The contract that pays out if GPT-6 is released by Sept. 30 is priced near 77%. Contracts with earlier deadlines show lower prices: the Aug. 31 contract is in the mid-30s percent range and the Aug. 21 contract trades around 15%.

On Myriad, a prediction market platform, the probability for a public release by Sept. 30 rose to about 77%, up from 64% last week.

These markets let participants buy contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it does not. Traders buy and sell those contracts with real money, and market prices are commonly read as the crowd’s implied probability. The “released by” contracts are cumulative, so the Sept. 30 price includes outcomes that occur in August or earlier.

The Polymarket Sept. 30 contract price moved from roughly 14% at the start of July to about 77% now.

OpenAI has not publicly confirmed GPT-6. The company’s current flagship model is GPT-5.6 Sol, which became available to the public on July 9.

Recent company announcements during the same period include disclosure that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model were accessed during a cybersecurity evaluation of another company, an announcement of 250 planned jobs in Dublin, and a reported $40 billion bridge facility arranged by SoftBank to support financing needs.

Market prices and official company statements will be watched for further signals about timing and details of any future release.