Market brief for Jan. 5: ETF flows, crypto, and prediction markets

Spot ETFs: where money came in and where it left

According to SoSoValue, over the last trading week (Dec. 29–Jan. 2, U.S. Eastern Time), spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net inflow of $459 million.

BlackRock’s IBIT was the main magnet again, with $324 million in net inflows for the week. Fidelity’s FBTC was next at $106 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC saw a net outflow of $53.67 million, which still looks like the ongoing “rotation” from older, higher-fee vehicles into newer products. In total, these funds hold roughly $116.95 billion in net assets.

Ethereum looked like a mirror image. Last week, spot ETH ETFs recorded a net outflow of $161 million. The week’s odd twist is that Grayscale’s ETHE still showed an inflow: +$104 million, and Grayscale’s ETH “mini trust” added another +$32 million. But the overall total was pulled down by outflows such as BlackRock’s ETHA (−$9.54 million) and broader pressure across the rest of the products. Total net assets across ETH ETFs are estimated at about $19.05 billion.

SOL’s spot ETF line also came in positive: net inflows of $10.43 million for the same period. Bitwise’s BSOL led with +$6.23 million, followed by Fidelity’s FSOL at +$2.53 million. Compared with Bitcoin and Ethereum, the number is small, but it still says something: institutional interest in Solana hasn’t vanished, even when the market is busy with louder headlines.

What moved after Jan. 1

Looking at the weekly view on CoinMarketCap, the large caps started the year more calmly than most altcoins. In CoinMarketCap’s Jan. 4 snapshot, BTC was around $91.4K and up roughly +4% over 7 days, ETH was near $3.14K and +6.5%, and SOL was about $133.9 and close to +7%.

Among the bigger names, DOGE moved faster (+20.6%), along with SUI (+17%) and XRP (+12.1%).

On CoinMarketCap’s “most viewed” pages, higher-risk stories were the ones getting the spotlight (and promising big upside if they work out):

• PEPE was up about +63.8% on the week
• RENDER: +54.4%
• BONK: +46.9%
• FLOKI: +36.2%

On the downside, privacy coins were among the stragglers: XMR was down around −7.7% over the same weekly window, with ZEC near −5.3%. It’s a familiar market pattern. When liquidity is chasing simple benchmarks and loud meme narratives, niche themes tend to fall behind.

Why markets are watching Venezuela right now

This week, geopolitics has mattered more than most chart setups. After reports that U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro, markets are trying to price what that could mean for oil, sanctions, and overall risk appetite.

From the headlines, the reaction has been mixed: some “safe haven” trades (like gold) caught a bid, while oil swung around without a clean trend. Crypto feels this too. In global stress moments, it either tries to act like “digital gold,” or it trades like a high-risk asset and moves with tech stocks.

And to end on a lighter note: while some people tally ETF inflows and argue about geopolitics, Polymarket managed to deliver an almost bond-like return on a bet that “Jesus did not return in 2025.” Traders who bought “no” earned about 5.5% annualized, which, as the joke went, even beat U.S. government bond yields at the time. The contract was also happily relisted for 2026.