Market overview for January 12: ETF flows, crypto, and the Iran factor

Spot ETFs: where money came in and where it left

According to SoSoValue, the first full trading week of 2026 for spot Bitcoin ETFs ended with a net outflow of about $681 million. The picture looks a bit paradoxical: on Monday, January 5, the funds pulled in roughly $697.2 million, and there was also a notable positive print on January 2. But then, for four days in a row, the market felt the pull of money heading back out.

By product, the main hit to the weekly balance came from Fidelity’s FBTC: about −$481.32 million. Grayscale’s GBTC was the second-largest outflow at roughly −$171.79 million. ARKB (Ark/21Shares) and several smaller funds also finished in the red.

Against that backdrop, BlackRock’s IBIT stood out. For the week it stayed slightly positive (+$25.86 million).

Ethereum looked similar, just with smaller numbers. Over the same week, spot ETH ETFs posted a net outflow of −$68.57 million. In the first couple of days there were inflows (about $282.87 million combined for January 5–6), and then three sessions in a row came with net redemptions.

Solana was the exception: over the past week, spot SOL ETFs showed a net inflow of $41.08 million. In dollar terms, that still doesn’t compare to the market’s flagships, but the direction makes it clear the asset remains on institutional watchlists even when the tape isn’t printing many green candles.

Winners and laggards in the crypto market

Looking at the top ten by market cap on CoinMarketCap, the week was more “nervy” than trend-driven. Over the last seven days, Bitcoin posted a small decline (about −0.6%), and Ethereum also slipped slightly (roughly −0.2%). Solana held up better and gained about +5%.

One of the most noticeable stories among large caps came from coins that rarely get treated as a “safe harbor.” Monero gained about +34% over seven days. Zcash, by contrast, was an underperformer, down about −17%. In this case, the trigger was an internal developer controversy.

In the meme segment and among smaller tokens, there were more bursts. In CoinMarketCap’s most-viewed lists, projects with sharp moves kept showing up among the top 7-day gainers, including BLACKWHALE (around +144%) and XCN (over +50%).

It’s also worth remembering that moves like this usually don’t live long. Today’s hottest coin can be forgotten by tomorrow. That’s why, at the strategy level, many investors keep looking for places where the source of demand is easier to explain. And here, ETF flows still remain one of the cleanest indicators.

Why markets are reacting to events in Iran

In the geopolitical backdrop this week, Iran has become the main risk trigger. Since late December, protests that began amid rising prices and a weakening rial have spread across the country and reached every province. Authorities have responded harshly: rights groups say more than 500 people have been killed and over 10,600 detained, while the familiar playbook of communications limits and internet disruptions keeps coming back. The risk that the clerical regime could fall now looks unusually high. Even if it holds, the political and economic cost could be steep.

The market logic here is straightforward: Iran is a major oil exporter (about 1.7 million barrels per day), and any instability there quickly turns into a risk premium in crude. Add in nerves around the Strait of Hormuz. It’s a narrow stretch of the map where geography directly influences price, because a meaningful share of global supply routes runs through the area.

In equities, Iran’s impact is visible too, even if it doesn’t always show up in a straight line. Rising oil prices tend to help energy names and pressure industries that depend on cheap fuel and shipping.

On Monday, markets leaned back toward defense: gold was setting records, and U.S. stock index futures were moving lower. Iran isn’t the only reason, but it adds that extra layer of uncertainty that makes investors cut risk wherever they can.

For crypto, this environment acts like a filter. When political risk rises, some money moves into traditional safe havens, some simply reduces leverage, and some stays in digital assets but trades them like tech-risk. That’s why the market can get jumpy even without big crypto-specific headlines.