March US CPI Rises 0.9% as Energy Pushes Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index on Friday, reporting headline CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. The agency said the energy index increased almost 11% for the month, led by a 21.2% rise in gasoline, and attributed the energy surge to the ongoing war in Iran. Other CPI components recorded smaller gains.

The March reading was slightly below some analyst forecasts but remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. The report provides the latest data officials and market participants will use when assessing monetary policy.

CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% probability the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged at the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with investors assigning essentially no chance of a rate cut in April. Probabilities of rate reductions increase only modestly later in the year. Federal Reserve officials are divided on the timing and size of future easing, and some officials have not ruled out further tightening if inflation pressures persist.

Price stability and maximum employment make up the Fed’s statutory mandate and guide its rate decisions. Higher-than-expected inflation readings generally reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts, while lower readings can create room for easing.

Financial markets reacted to the CPI print. Bitcoin rose more than 1.5% on Friday, briefly touching $73,000. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, predicted: “The $73,000–$75,000 zone is our next major target. If BTC clears this, expect a brief period of sideways consolidation before a test of $80,000. Should the Clarity Act pass, the stage is set for $100,000 BTC and a $3 trillion–$3.2 trillion total crypto market cap by the end of Q2.”

Traders and policymakers will continue to follow monthly CPI readings and broader inflation trends to assess whether price pressures are broadening or remaining tied to energy and other specific categories.