Kraken says Bitcoin cycle in 2026 will hinge on liquidity and market structure

Perfumo argued that Bitcoin remains a key barometer for risk sentiment, but pointed to U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and so-called digital asset treasury companies as increasingly important channels for demand and price discovery. He estimated those vehicles represented nearly $44 billion of net spot demand for bitcoin in 2025, while adding that price performance lagged the scale of inflows as long-term holders supplied much of the marketable inventory. He characterized the result as a market capable of absorbing large inflows without the rapid upside moves seen in earlier cycles.

On the macro backdrop, Perfumo cited modest growth expectations, persistent inflation pressures and a slower pace of policy easing as constraints on risk assets. He warned that periods of low volatility can be misleading if liquidity conditions tighten, and flagged macro-driven shifts in funding costs and liquidity as key variables for crypto markets.

Kraken also highlighted stablecoins and regulation as structural drivers for 2026. Perfumo wrote that stablecoin liquidity has reached record highs and pointed to U.S. policy momentum, including the GENIUS Act framework for stablecoins and ongoing efforts toward broader crypto market structure legislation.

The note added that institutional channels may face headwinds. Kraken wrote that spot bitcoin ETF inflows slowed in 2025 compared with 2024, and argued that crypto treasury companies could find it harder to raise equity funding as market premiums compress, which could limit their capacity to add incremental spot demand without a clearer risk-on environment.

As GNcrypto covered previously, Kraken disclosed on 19 November 2025 that it had confidentially filed draft paperwork for a U.S. initial public offering, targeting a first-quarter 2026 listing after a capital raise that valued the exchange at $20 billion, with Jane Street and Citadel Securities among the participants. Kraken has also expanded beyond digital assets, adding equities access and pursuing U.S. futures through a $1.5 billion agreement to buy NinjaTrader and a $100 million purchase of IG Group’s Small Exchange.