Kalshi signs Game Point deal to hedge team bonus payouts after Super Bowl volume

Kalshi chief executive Tarek Mansour announced the deal in an X post on 12 February 2026. He described the arrangement as an alternative to the traditional over-the-counter reinsurance market and said the broader sports insurance and reinsurance market totals about $9 billion a year and could double by 2030.

Game Point Capital provides coverage tied to team and player performance bonuses, which can trigger large contractual payouts after milestones such as playoff qualification or championships. Mansour wrote that Game Point executed its first hedges on Kalshi in early February 2026 for two NBA teams. One contract hedged a postseason-bonus payout and was priced at 6% on Kalshi versus a 12% to 13% quote in the OTC market, while a second contract hedging a bonus for reaching the second round was priced at 2% versus 7% to 8% OTC.

The move comes after a surge in sports-driven activity on Kalshi. Mansour has previously cited roughly $441 million of trading in the first four days after the NFL season kickoff in September 2025. He also said more than $1 billion was traded on the platform during the Super Bowl in February 2026.

Prediction markets have expanded alongside rising state-level scrutiny. The Block’s data dashboard showed Kalshi logged about $9.6 billion of volume in January 2026, up from about $6.6 billion in December 2025, while Polymarket posted roughly $7.7 billion in January, up from about $5.3 billion in December. Kalshi is appealing a Nevada ruling that required compliance with state gaming rules and is in litigation in Massachusetts over offering sports contracts without a state license. Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit against Massachusetts on 9 February 2026, while a federal judge in Tennessee has temporarily blocked state regulators from enforcing a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi’s sports contracts.