JPMorgan says Strategy’s resilience is a key factor for bitcoin’s price
Ability of Strategy (ticker MSTR) to remain financially stable and avoid selling bitcoin is a key factor for BTC price in the coming months, JPMorgan analysts said. They noted that the enterprise-value-to-bitcoin-holdings ratio of the company is currently 1.13 — a level that signals no pressure to liquidate assets.
JPMorgan said recent market pressure is coming from two sources: a falling bitcoin hash rate and declining mining difficulty, as well as news surrounding Strategy. According to the report, mining demand in China dropped after authorities once again reaffirmed the mining ban. Outside China, weak prices and high energy costs have pushed miners to lock in profits, adding further pressure to the market.
Despite the lower difficulty — which typically supports miner profitability — analysts noted that bitcoin is still trading below its production cost. JPMorgan estimates the cost of mining BTC at $90,000, down from a previous $94,000. Every additional cent in electricity cost raises production expenses by $18,000 for high-cost miners, increasing the likelihood of forced selling.
The main variable, however, remains Strategy’s behavior. The company has accumulated more than 650,000 BTC and has not sold despite significant market volatility. Investors see Strategy’s financial health as a proxy for bitcoin’s resilience. If the EV/BTC ratio stays above 1, selling pressure on BTC may ease.
Strategy has also built a $1.44 billion reserve that covers up to two years of dividends and interest payments. JPMorgan says this substantially reduces the risk that the company will need to sell bitcoin to service its debt.
The report also discusses the potential removal of Strategy from MSCI indexes. JPMorgan argues that the market has already priced in this risk: since October 10, MSTR shares have fallen 40%, underperforming bitcoin by 20%, wiping out roughly $18 billion in market value. Analysts expect only limited downside even if MSCI makes an adverse decision.
If MSCI keeps Strategy in the index, JPMorgan expects a strong rebound in both MSTR and BTC — returning to levels seen before October’s selloff, the largest in crypto market history.
Looking ahead, analysts maintain a constructive outlook: their model, based on volatility relative to gold, points to a theoretical bitcoin price of about $170,000 within the next 6–12 months.
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