JPMorgan says Bitcoin is holding up better as gold prediction weakens
BTC drew net inflows during the Iran war period, according to JPMorgan, while gold is down about 15% month to date.
In a research note, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reported that Bitcoin has held up better than gold and silver during the Iran war period, drawing net inflows as precious-metal exchange-traded funds faced withdrawals. Gold is down about 15% month to date, with nearly $11 billion leaving gold ETFs over the first three weeks of March. Silver ETF flows have erased the inflows accumulated since last summer.
The report links the metals’ weakness to rising interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, which pressured crowded positions after both metals reached record highs earlier this year.
The analysis flagged a rise in crypto activity in Iran after the war began, citing Chainalysis data. Iranian crypto outflows jumped 700% after Tehran strikes. Residents moved funds from local exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms. The authors pointed to Bitcoin’s ability to be held without an intermediary, its 24/7 trading, and cross-border transfers during periods of economic stress, currency pressure, and capital controls.
Institutional positioning diverged over recent months. JPMorgan’s proxy for institutional futures exposure, based on changes in CME open interest, shows investors built gold and silver positions through late last year and early 2026, then cut them sharply since January, consistent with profit-taking. Bitcoin futures positioning on CME has remained relatively steady in recent weeks.
Momentum-driven strategies accelerated selling in metals, according to the analysis. Indicators used by trend-following traders, such as commodity trading advisors, shifted for gold and silver from overbought to below neutral, pointing to forced liquidations. Bitcoin momentum measures have been improving from oversold toward neutral.
Liquidity conditions shifted as well. Using the Hui-Heubel ratio to gauge market breadth and liquidity, the analysis finds that while gold has historically been more liquid than Bitcoin and silver, recent readings show deterioration in gold to the point that Bitcoin currently displays stronger market breadth. Silver’s liquidity has weakened more than gold’s.
“In all, silver ETF flows have unwound all of the previous inflows seen since last summer. The deterioration in liquidity conditions in gold has seen its market breadth decline below that of bitcoin currently,” the report states. “Crypto activity surged in Iran.”
The findings cover the first three weeks of March and the period following the outbreak of the Iran war.
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