JPMorgan models Bitcoin at $170,000, cites gold framework

In the note, seen on 8 November 2025, the bank points to several concurrent data points: Bitcoin is already trading near $102,000–$123,000 after touching a record above $125,000 in October; overall crypto capitalization is back above $4 trillion; and spot products, treasury strategies and wealth channels are sending steady inflows even after the early-autumn pullback. On that base, the bank sketches an upper-range path where Bitcoin’s capitalization does not stop at the current ~$2.4–$2.5 trillion but multiplies by more than 10x as deeper pools of capital are unlocked.

The analytical backbone is the same gold-parity model JPMorgan’s strategists have used for years. In a separate valuation update this week they argued that, relative to gold held for investment, BTC still trades below “fair” levels and could reach about $170,000 within six to twelve months as derivatives deleveraging ends. The $35 trillion figure simply extends that logic into a regime where Bitcoin is not just matching gold’s investable float but absorbing portions of other real-asset and alternative buckets once regulatory barriers fall. In that state, Bitcoin would be treated less as a high-beta tech proxy and more as a programmable, dollar-independent reserve instrument. 

What gives the bank confidence to publish such an aggressive upside path is the client side. The note says large private and institutional clients on its network “are increasingly betting on Bitcoin” at the same time the bank’s own research desk has turned from neutral to bullish. That combination — client positioning plus house view — is rare in traditional finance when it comes to crypto and indicates that the bank is actually seeing tickets, not only modeling scenarios. The timing is also notable: the market has just endured a 20% drawdown from the October peak, yet allocations have not collapsed.

The report breaks the potential inflows into three broad sources. First is the U.S. and European wealth channel, where spot products and bank-wrapped notes let high-net-worth investors park 1–3% in Bitcoin without changing custodians.

Second is the still-untapped U.S. retirement market, which could begin allocating small slices once the current Congress-backed crypto legislation is fully implemented; JPMorgan’s analysts reference the broader Washington shift toward allowing digital assets in tax-advantaged accounts.

Third is corporate and sovereign balance-sheet demand — a small but symbolically important buyer group that, if it normalizes bitcoin as a treasury diversifier, could bring in multi-hundred-billion tranches.