Israel indicts suspects in alleged Polymarket military bets

An investigation run jointly by Israel’s Defense Ministry, the Shin Bet and Israel Police led to the arrests of several suspects, including reservists, after authorities said wagers were placed “based on classified information” the reservists accessed through their military roles. Prosecutors said indictments were filed against one reservist and one civilian for “severe security offenses,” as well as bribery and obstruction of justice.

Authorities said further details of the affair remain under a court-issued gag order, limiting what can be published beyond the fact of the indictments and the general nature of the allegations. The defense establishment said betting with secret or classified information creates operational risk and that it views the attributed acts with “utmost severity,” adding it will act to prevent unlawful use of classified material.

Court documents unsealed for publication in Tel Aviv on Feb. 12 described the alleged mechanism: prosecutors said the reservist was exposed to internal military information by virtue of his IDF role and shared it with the civilian, and the pair then used it to place wagers related to military operations on Polymarket. Prosecutors also stressed that the case does not involve senior defense officials, after recent speculation in local reporting, and noted the indictment does not include certain national-security clauses referenced in public discussion.

The case follows weeks of scrutiny around unusually prescient Polymarket positions tied to sensitive events. Authorities previously confirmed they were examining suspicions that someone within the defense establishment was using classified information to bet on Polymarket, after a series of wagers drew attention for their timing and accuracy.

In the Feb. 12 announcement, officials referenced an earlier episode involving a Polymarket user operating under the handle “ricosuave666,” who placed several bets in June 2025 that closely matched subsequent Israeli military actions related to Iran, according to details cleared for publication. Authorities said the user wagered tens of thousands of dollars and was described as earning about $150,000 in profit.

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market where traders buy and sell positions on the likelihood of real-world outcomes, with payouts determined by how events resolve. The platform’s rapid growth in high-profile markets has also brought persistent concerns about manipulation and information advantages when markets reference hard-to-verify or fast-moving geopolitical events.

Israel’s defense establishment framed the indictment as a deterrence case as much as a criminal one. Officials said turning operational knowledge into wagers creates incentives that can compromise secrecy, raise the risk of information leaks, and potentially influence behavior around sensitive events, especially when markets concentrate attention on the timing of military actions.

For now, the public record is constrained: prosecutors have confirmed indictments, the investigative bodies involved, the broad categories of alleged offenses, and the existence of additional suspects arrested in the operation, while core evidentiary details remain sealed under gag order. The next milestones are expected to come through court proceedings in Tel Aviv, including any further publication approvals that clarify what specific markets were traded, what information was accessed, and how the alleged betting activity was traced to the defendants.