Hill: CLARITY Act has about 15% chance of passing in 2026

Rep. French Hill estimated the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 at roughly 15%, saying recent shifts in legislative attention have raised the bill’s profile.

Hill, a Republican from Arkansas who sits on the House Financial Services Committee, offered the figure amid ongoing congressional conversations about regulating digital assets and related market activity.

The CLARITY Act seeks to clarify how federal law applies to digital assets by assigning regulatory responsibilities among agencies and defining key terms used in enforcement and oversight. Provisions in the bill address issues such as the legal classification of tokens, oversight of trading platforms and the treatment of certain products like stablecoins and exchange-traded tokens.

Supporters argue the bill would reduce legal uncertainty for businesses and investors by setting statutory rules. Critics contend the measure could leave gaps or advantage specific market participants depending on how definitions and enforcement roles are written.

For the CLARITY Act to become law in 2026 it would need to pass the House and the Senate and be signed by the president. That path requires committee hearings, floor votes, negotiation of amendments and some level of bipartisan support within the 2026 legislative calendar.

Previous efforts to create a statutory framework for digital assets have stalled over disputes on definitions, agency roles and the scope of enforcement. Hill’s 15% estimate reflects his assessment that those hurdles remain significant while the bill has gained more attention in Congress.

Industry groups, consumer advocates and federal regulators continue to debate how a statute should allocate oversight responsibilities. If the bill advances in 2025 and early 2026, lawmakers would need to reconcile competing amendments and secure votes before final enactment could occur.