Venezuela president prediction bet pays off big for Polymarket trader
A newly created account on prediction platform Polymarket turned a mid–five-figure stake into more than $400,000 after the “Maduro out by January 31, 2026” series resolved Yes following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026.
A Polymarket market tied to Maduro’s status paid out to “Yes” holders after U.S. forces detained Maduro and transported him to New York, where he faces U.S. charges, enabling a gain of roughly 1,242% for the highlighted trader. The platform’s public market page shows the January 31, 2026 tranche marked Yes, with prior Nov. 30 and Dec. 31, 2025 tranches marked No; a separate contract on “Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31” also reflects the capture.
U.S. and international media reported that the operation took place on January 3 and culminated with Maduro in U.S. custody in New York. President Donald Trump told reporters the United States would “run” Venezuela until conditions allowed for a transition. Coverage from Reuters, the Guardian and Euronews detailed the timeline, legal framing and political reaction from abroad.
Market data indicate liquidity concentrated around the deadline-based “Maduro out by…?” contracts, where prices can rapidly reprice toward $1.00 as verifiable developments emerge. The Information’s briefing, echoed across market trackers, noted an account that amassed “Yes” shares near $0.07 ahead of resolution, translating a roughly $30k+ position into $400k+ in profit once the Jan. 31 tranche flipped to Yes.
The capture also lifted activity in Polymarket’s “Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31” market and related Venezuela pages that log real-time odds, volume and post-resolution states for auditability. Public dashboards show millions of dollars in cumulative flow across the Venezuela cluster, with the custody-specific market explicitly resolving on confirmation that Maduro is taken into U.S. government custody by the deadline.
Polymarket operates event-based binary markets settled in USDC and previously paid a $1.4 million penalty to the CFTC (January 2022) for offering unregistered event contracts; the company later pursued pathways for regulated U.S. access via intermediated structures. That compliance history continues to frame debates about trading on politically sensitive events and the handling of potential information asymmetries.
The material on GNcrypto is intended solely for informational use and must not be regarded as financial advice. We make every effort to keep the content accurate and current, but we cannot warrant its precision, completeness, or reliability. GNcrypto does not take responsibility for any mistakes, omissions, or financial losses resulting from reliance on this information. Any actions you take based on this content are done at your own risk. Always conduct independent research and seek guidance from a qualified specialist. For further details, please review our Terms, Privacy Policy and Disclaimers.
Articles by this author
