Arthur Hayes warns Monad token could wipe out most of its value

Hayes described Monad project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin” and argued that its token structure leaves late-arriving traders exposed if large insider allocations unlock into a weakening market. FDV, or fully diluted valuation, measures a project’s value if all tokens were already in circulation; Hayes said that when the gap between FDV and current circulating supply is large, early price spikes are often followed by deep drawdowns once locked tokens begin to hit the market.

According to market data, MON has already shown sharp volatility since launch. After debuting near its public sale price, the token almost doubled during an initial rally before sliding around 25% from its peak to roughly $0.036 at the time of the report. Hayes said such early surges are typical for low-float launches but stressed that they do not guarantee a durable use case or long-term demand. Arthur also pushed back on claims that Monad could threaten established smart contract platforms. 

He argued that the project “has no chance” against Ethereum and is unlikely even to match Solana in real-world adoption, suggesting that expectations for a new “ETH killer” are out of line with the current competitive landscape in layer-1 networks. In his view, most new base-layer chains fail over time, with only a small group likely to retain lasting relevance.

Monad, which raised about $225 million from backers including venture firm Paradigm, launched its mainnet and MON token this week, accompanied by an airdrop. Hayes acknowledged that he had taken a small personal position but said he remained “99% bearish,” characterizing MON as a speculative trade rather than a long-term holding.

Beyond Monad, Hayes reiterated his broader view of the market. He said he expects only a handful of protocols — naming Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and Zcash — to survive multiple cycles, and argued that the next phase of growth in crypto will be driven largely by renewed monetary expansion from major economies.

In his words, large-scale liquidity injections by governments and central banks are still ahead, and digital assets could again benefit as investors seek alternatives to traditional financial assets. Hayes also repeated his long-held skepticism about the idea that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle alone explains market booms. Instead, he framed Bitcoin as a “smoke alarm” for global liquidity, saying that price expansions and contractions map more closely to broader credit conditions led by the United States and China than to programmed supply cuts.

Looking forward, he predicted that privacy technologies and zero-knowledge systems will play a central role in the next major crypto narrative, and noted that his family office has already made Zcash one of its largest holdings after Bitcoin. At the same time, he expects institutional adoption to consolidate around Ethereum, especially via stablecoins and tokenized financial instruments.