Grayscale sees new Bitcoin highs in 2026 and rejects the four-year cycle

According to the company’s data, the current market structure is different enough from previous cycles that BTC could reach new all-time highs in 2026, despite the recent correction.

The four-year cycle thesis is based on the observation that after each halving, Bitcoin’s supply growth slows, the price usually accelerates, and then goes through a deep drawdown and a long cooling-off phase. Grayscale’s analysts argue that this pattern is gradually losing its strength. The report notes that this time there was no previous “parabolic” rally where the chart shoots up almost vertically. That means the market has not yet gone through a clear overheating phase that typically comes before a prolonged bear trend.

Since early October, Bitcoin has already faced a rough patch: from the local peak, the price dropped by roughly a third, and earlier this week it briefly moved down toward $84,000 dollars before recovering to just under $87,000. Grayscale reminds readers that 25–30% pullbacks and even deeper ones are common inside bull markets and, by themselves, do not signal the end of the trend. In the firm’s view, investors have to accept these “painful but normal” setbacks if they are focused on the long term.

The report also highlights how the market infrastructure has changed. In previous cycles, the main driver of growth was retail speculative capital on spot exchanges. Today a large share of demand comes from exchange-traded funds and corporate digital treasuries that accumulate Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This makes price movements heavier and less explosive, but, in Grayscale’s opinion, also lowers the risk of the kind of abrupt collapse the market saw a few years ago.

In its report, the company also points to the broader macro backdrop. Potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. and progress on crypto regulation bills create additional tailwinds for Bitcoin. Against this backdrop, Grayscale expects investors to rely less on a simple calendar formula of “halving plus a year of growth” and pay more attention to actual capital flows, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic trends.

Other market participants share Grayscale’s optimism. Analyst Tom Lee points to a growing gap between crypto industry fundamentals and current prices and calls the risk/return profile of BTC and ETH attractive. In his view, Bitcoin can reach a new all-time high by early 2026.

This view is echoed by Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, and Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital.

For both retail and institutional investors, this adds up to one key takeaway: blindly following the mythology of a “magic cycle” is becoming less useful. If Grayscale’s forecast plays out, Bitcoin’s next major move will be shaped not by the date of the halving, but by how quickly inflows into funds grow, how regulation evolves, and how deeply crypto assets are integrated into the strategies of large players.