Goldman Sachs projects gold could hit $4,900 by year-end

Goldman Sachs projected gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by year-end in its latest commodities outlook distributed to clients. The bank’s commodity analysts linked the forecast to a scenario in which real interest rates decline and the U.S. dollar weakens, factors that can increase demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

The note placed the $4,900 level under the firm’s base-case macro assumptions for the remainder of the year. It identified potential drivers of higher prices, including central-bank rate cuts, sustained investor demand, exchange-traded fund inflows and sizable purchases by official-sector buyers and private investors.

The analysts noted that lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion and that a weaker dollar raises dollar-priced returns. The report modeled outcomes based on shifts in interest-rate expectations, currency movements and capital flows, and it said the timing and magnitude of policy changes and investor flows would shape the price path.

The bank referenced recent market sensitivity to rate expectations and currency moves when building its scenarios and cited gold’s previous nominal record near $2,070 per ounce in August 2020 for context. The outlook will be one input clients consider as they position portfolios for the remainder of the year.