Goldman Sachs raises year end gold forecast to 5400 dollars an ounce

In a note, analysts Daan Struyven and Lina Thomas said the upgrade assumes private investors who bought gold as a hedge against macro policy risks will hold those positions through December 2026. They argued that hedges tied to broader concerns such as fiscal sustainability could prove more durable than positions linked to specific events.

Gold has risen more than 70% over the past 12 months and has set new records in early 2026. The analysts pointed to demand for haven assets amid shifts in global power dynamics and renewed political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Goldman said central-bank purchases are expected to average about 60 tons a month in 2026, with emerging-market monetary authorities likely to continue diversifying reserves into gold. The bank also noted that Western gold ETF holdings have increased by roughly 500 tons since the start of 2025, exceeding levels implied by expectations of U.S. interest-rate cuts.

Goldman expects a further 50 basis points of Federal Reserve easing in 2026. It also cited demand linked to what it called a debasement trade, including physical buying by high-net-worth families and investor call-option activity. The bank said risks to its upgraded forecast are skewed to the upside if private investors diversify further amid lingering policy uncertainty, while a sharp reduction in perceived long-run fiscal and monetary risks could trigger liquidations and pressure prices.

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