Glassnode Risk Index Falls to Zero; Bitcoin Strategy Flips

Glassnode posted on Thursday that its Bitcoin Risk Index reached zero and its Moderate Strategy moved to “High Confidence.” The firm flagged the alignment as a cleared risk landscape for market exposure.

The Risk Index is a proprietary gauge that scores systemic market risk on a scale from 0 to 100. Glassnode said a reading of zero is the lowest possible level. The Moderate Strategy is designed to capture upside momentum and exit when conviction fades; Glassnode reported the strategy flipped from “Moderate” to “High Confidence” for the first time since Oct. 10. The firm described the changes as part of its Bitcoin Vector framework, developed after seven years of research and backtesting.

Market flows and price action accompanied the signal. Bitcoin rose to $79,388 on Wednesday, its highest level in more than three months, and later traded around $77,800. Ether was near $2,330. Crypto investment products recorded about $1.4 billion in inflows last week, pushing total assets under management to roughly $155 billion and marking a third consecutive week of positive flows.

Glassnode reported that 54% of recent buyers are currently in profit. The firm also recorded a spike in realized profit among short-term holders to $4.4 million, roughly three times a $1.5 million level that Glassnode has associated with local tops earlier this year. The report noted that rising realized profits can lead to intensified profit-taking if new demand does not absorb them.

Analysts and market participants pointed to several potential demand catalysts: passage of the CLARITY Act, Federal Reserve rate cuts, or a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East. They identified risks including renewed hostilities in the Middle East, disruptions to oil supplies and persistent inflation that could prompt further rate increases.

Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, called the setup “an excellent window for strategic accumulation” and projected that improving market structure and growing institutional conviction could support a strong close to 2026. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at BTSE, noted that easing U.S.-Iran tensions would likely sustain bullish positioning in the near term.

Sentiment gauges reflected increased optimism. The Fear and Greed Index moved from “extreme fear” at the start of April to “fear” this week. Users on a prediction market assigned about a 74% chance that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 next and about a 54% chance that Ether will reach $3,000.

Glassnode cautioned that while its internal measures show a cleared risk landscape, sustaining levels above $80,000 depends on new fundamental demand. The firm advised market participants to monitor profit-taking dynamics as realized profits and fund inflows rise.