Glassnode: 45 Bitcoin metrics in longest capitulation since FTX

On Monday Glassnode reported that 45 Bitcoin price metrics have entered their longest capitulation phase since the collapse of FTX in late 2022. The platform’s Cycle Position Heatmap showed predominantly blue readings through 2026.

The Cycle Position Heatmap was created by Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft to combine 45 indicators into a single view of the market cycle. A majority-blue heatmap indicates a period of capitulation, while red denotes the high euphoria that tends to appear near cycle peaks. The tool includes basic price measures such as market capitalization and metrics that track investor profitability by separating short-term and long-term holders.

Glassnode noted the heatmap flipped largely blue in 2022 after a euphoric phase in November 2021. The platform linked the blue readings in 2022 to the FTX collapse, which coincided with Bitcoin’s last bear-market low near $15,600. Schultze-Kraft wrote that the heatmap “sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.”

The firm warned some on-chain indicators change behaviour over time and require adjusted interpretation. As an example, Glassnode pointed to dormancy, which measures how long units of bitcoin have remained idle before being spent; dormancy tends to rise as the investor base ages and can differ across cycles.

Glassnode’s Market Pulse report recorded a rise in on-chain activity. Daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moved above their upper statistical bands, which the firm described as higher network engagement and greater economic throughput. Glassnode reported capital outflows had stabilized despite a surge in small-value movements after a low-entropy bug exploit in Coldcard hardware wallets prompted some investors to move funds.

Analytics firm CryptoQuant noted a comparable rise in on-chain transactions of 1 BTC or less. Data showed the daily tally of such transactions reached about 39,600 BTC on July 31, compared with roughly 39,900 BTC on Nov. 16, 2022.

Glassnode emphasized that, while the current composite readings are the coldest since the FTX fallout, aggregate metrics have not yet matched the unanimous deep-blue conditions that marked previous bear-market bottoms. The Cycle Position Heatmap is used by traders and researchers to track repeating characteristics of Bitcoin price cycles and investor behaviour through 2026.