Giustra and Lepard reaffirm gold rally; Lepard forecasts $1M bitcoin

Spot gold opened the week near $4,214 an ounce on June 13, climbed to about $4,330–$4,380 midweek on optimism around a U.S.-Iran truce, then fell to roughly $4,151–$4,173 by June 19–20. The decline was about 3.4% for the week and extended a June correction that trimmed roughly 8.5% from the month’s highs. Gold remains about 23% above its level a year ago but below its January 2026 record near $5,608 an ounce.

Market factors cited for the pullback included a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve tone. The dollar reached a 13-month high, making the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. The Fed kept its policy range at 3.5%–3.75% and signaled the possibility of further rate increases later in 2026. May consumer prices rose 4.2% year over year. Gold closed below its 200-day moving average for a sustained period for the first time since late 2023. Silver traded near $64.90 on June 19, with monthly losses around 14%.

Frank Giustra described the price drop as “a normal correction rather than the end of the gold bull market.” He pointed to continued central bank buying and to reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar, actions he links to the freezing of some foreign reserves and to efforts by some countries to build payment systems outside the dollar network. Giustra expects mining stocks to eventually track bullion gains more closely and foresees consolidation among producers seeking new deposits.

Lawrence Lepard connected higher gold prices to expectations that U.S. deficits will be financed through monetary expansion rather than immediate spending cuts. He said he would change his view only if governments adopted durable fiscal discipline. Lepard, who holds both gold and bitcoin, highlighted bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins as a form of digital scarcity. He described the current bitcoin pullback as shallow compared with past cycles and mapped multi-decade price paths that include moves from about $100,000 to $1 million and beyond. Lepard added, “I believe holding zero bitcoin is a mistake.”

On the institutional side, Goldman Sachs reduced its 2026 gold target to $4,900 an ounce from $5,400, citing delayed Fed rate cuts and softer demand for gold-backed ETFs. Trading models cited by market observers project gold near $4,162 by the end of the second quarter and around $4,527 over 12 months. Traders identified support between $4,000 and $4,100 as a level to watch if the correction continues. Incoming data on inflation and employment, further Fed commentary and any follow-through on the U.S.-Iran agreement were listed as factors that could affect near-term price moves.