Gemini launches regulated prediction markets in all U.S. states

The crypto exchange led by the Winklevoss twins has launched Gemini Predictions, a prediction markets product available in all 50 U.S. states, following the grant of a Designated Contract Market license to its affiliate, Gemini Titan, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The exchange announced the nationwide rollout in an X post, indicating that Titan received the authorization on Dec.10.

Gemini Predictions is offered through Gemini Titan, the licensed venue. The company describes the service as providing “near instant execution” and “full transparency.” With the DCM approval, Gemini Titan can list and offer event contracts to U.S. customers under federal derivatives rules. Available markets include contracts on the price of Bitcoin at specified future dates.

A Designated Contract Market is a U.S. futures exchange overseen by the CFTC. DCMs must comply with core principles on market integrity, surveillance and customer protection.

Gemini, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, has described its product roadmap as building a “one-stop super app” that combines crypto trading, staking, rewards programs and access to tokenized stocks with prediction markets.

Large crypto platforms continue to add adjacent features. Self-custodial wallets such as MetaMask and Trust Wallet have introduced new services, and decentralized exchange PancakeSwap announced Probable, a prediction platform on BNB Chain. Venture firm YZi Labs, formed by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, has funded several prediction market projects, including Opinion, which ranked highly by trading volume in November.

Prediction markets in the United States have been affected by changing regulatory decisions. Some providers limited access in recent years to avoid enforcement actions. Polymarket, which had restricted U.S. activity after a 2022 settlement, began a phased relaunch for American users in early December, starting with waitlisted accounts.

There have also been recent state actions. In early December, Connecticut issued cease-and-desist orders affecting several firms, including Kalshi, Robinhood and Crypto.com. A judge later granted a temporary reprieve to Kalshi, allowing certain activities to continue.

By operating via a CFTC-licensed DCM, Gemini places its prediction markets under federal oversight. The exchange describes the platform as offering rapid order matching and transparent market data.