Gemini eyes prediction markets, waits on CFTC exchange nod
Gemini Space Station Inc., the crypto exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is preparing to list prediction market contracts and is awaiting U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval for a designated contract market application filed in May 2025, according to people familiar with the plans.
Executives have discussed launching the products as soon as approval allows, the people noted. The firm has considered listing contracts tied to outcomes of sports, elections and other events on the planned exchange.
The application remains pending. Reviews for new exchanges at the CFTC can take months or years, and the timeline could slip because of the federal government shutdown.
If cleared, Gemini would join firms building federally regulated markets for event-based contracts. Some brokers route customers to licensed venues; Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD), for example, offers event contracts from Kalshi Inc. Gemini would compete with Kalshi, a CFTC-registered exchange, and with Polymarket, which has outlined plans to re-enter the U.S. Both have recently reported record volumes in recent weeks.
Large exchange operators Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE) and CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME) are exploring event contracts. Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) has discussed expanding into event markets as part of an "Everything Exchange" strategy during recent earnings calls.
Before its September initial public offering, Gemini disclosed plans to launch event contracts for economic, financial, political and sports forecasts. Since the debut, the stock has fallen about 40%. The company hosts a small share of U.S. crypto trading and, per its prospectus, is not profitable. A Needham analyst recently described prediction markets as an "attractive" way for Gemini to broaden its business.
Regulatory questions remain. While the CFTC has permitted Kalshi to add markets, state gaming regulators that oversee sports wagering have challenged aspects of prediction markets in court. Gemini reports its first earnings as a public company on Nov. 10, 2025.
As GNCrypto wrote previously, Gemini Space Station Inc. agreed on Jan. 7, 2025 to pay $5 million to settle a CFTC case alleging the firm made misleading statements in a 2017 meeting about Bitcoin futures, avoiding a late-January trial and without admitting wrongdoing. The company is also under SEC investigation for potential securities law violations, with talks on a pretrial resolution continuing.
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