Gemini receives CFTC approval to launch prediction markets in the U.S.
Gemini Titan, a division of the Gemini exchange, has received a Designated Contract Market license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The approval gives the company access to the regulated prediction-market sector and allows it to offer event contracts to U.S. users.
Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss said the decision concludes a five-year licensing process and marks the start of a new chapter for the company. He thanked the Trump administration, which he said ended the “war on crypto” and cleared the way for approvals like this.
The license places Gemini alongside existing players such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Polymarket, after years of operating under restrictions, recently returned to the U.S. market following its own CFTC approval.
Gemini says demand for prediction markets surged in 2025, driven by interest in contracts tied to political outcomes and macroeconomic expectations. The company is preparing to launch event-contract trading through its web interface and plans to add mobile support.
The new markets will let users trade on a wide range of outcomes — for example, whether bitcoin will hold above $200,000 by year-end or whether certain regulatory decisions will be adopted.
At the same time, Gemini is shaping a broader derivatives strategy. The company plans to seek U.S. listings for futures, options, and perpetual swaps — products that are well developed in Asia but remain limited for U.S. traders due to strict regulatory rules.
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss said prediction markets could grow as large as traditional capital markets. He added that CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham shares the industry’s vision and played a central role in the approval.
In addition to the license, Gemini has joined the new CEO Innovation Council — a group that includes representatives from Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, and CME Group. The council will focus on developing prediction-market infrastructure and advancing derivatives innovation.
Interest in the segment is rising among crypto users as well: according to Myriad Markets, 80% of participants see prediction markets as the category with the strongest growth potential.
Gemini shares rose about 13.7% in post-market trading after the announcement. Even so, the company is still trading roughly 70% below its IPO price.
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